Key Takeaways

• NHC raises chances of Tropical Storm development to 70% over the next 2 days
• Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to become Tropical Storm Arthur by Wednesday afternoon; now expected to make landfall in Texas
• Low tornado risk with storms tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday, including waterspouts
• Tropical Storm Watches in effect for Northern Texas Coast, including Galveston County
• Highest rain totals now expected to stay offshore, 3-5 inches of rain remain possible through the end of the week

Impacts and Timing

• Per the National Hurricane Center:
  • “Potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the Texas Coast and Louisiana.”
  • “Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.”
  • “Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday.”
  • “Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required later today.”

In terms of timing, storms and heaviest rainfall can be expected overnight into the morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday. Heaviest rain totals will be located over areas where thunderstorms train over the same area.

There is good news however, as model guidance has continued to show a southeast trend in terms of the heaviest rainfall, keeping most of it off shore.

The KGTX-7 Meteorologist team is continuing to monitor the situation, and will continue providing updates as needed.