Overview

• Daily storm chances will begin increasing beginning today, increasing further into the beginning of the upcoming week
• Hot temperatures continue to persist, but increased cloudiness and rain chances could bring some relief
• El Nino continues to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean, continuing to increase confidence in a below average Atlantic and Gulf hurricane season

This Weekend

Deep tropical moisture has begun making its way back onshore, leading to an increased chance for scattered thunderstorms each day this weekend. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches can be expected over the next 5 days.

Not everyone will see storms everyday, but those that do will likely experience torrential downpours, gusty winds, and lightning. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but I cannot rule out a severe thunderstorm at some point this weekend.

For those of you enjoying your weekend on the beach, take proper measures to prepare to take shelter if a storm should approach.

The heat on the other hand is not going to let up anytime soon, but the rain and increased cloudiness this weekend may help to bring some slight relief. Nonetheless, I am forecasting high temperatures in the low 90s each day this weekend, with 40-50% rain chances each day.

Storm Timing

The general timing for thunderstorms each day will be from 9am – 7pm, coming to an end by nightfall. Storms will be scattered in coverage, so once again not everyone will see storms all day, but chances are rising that most of our coverage area will experience thunderstorms at some point in the daytime each day this weekend.

The Tropics

CSU has issued an update to their Hurricane Forecast, and the forecast is calling for an even less active Hurricane Season. CSU is forecasting 9 named storms this year in the Atlantic. The average number of named storms for the Atlantic Hurricane season is ~14, so this season continues to be expected to be well below average.

The reason for the well below average hurricane season is the strengthening El Nino in the Pacific Basin. The El Nino is just a name meteorologists give the above average Pacific Ocean water temperatures. This year, the El Nino is expected to strengthen to “Very Strong” levels, which typically reduces the favorable ingredients needed for Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.

I want to emphasize that the El Nino is a normal pattern/occurrence, and that this year it is simply expected to be stronger than usual. That is all. It does not cause “freak weather events” or anything of that nature you may have seen on “hype” forecasts. Impacts to be expected likely won’t be felt until the winter months, and even then all to be expected for Texas is a milder, and wetter winter.