Overview

• The stormy pattern will continue through Tuesday, bringing widespread 1-3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts approaching 5 inches possible
• Slight cooldown Monday and Tuesday, but it won’t last for long as we climb back into the mid 90s starting Wednesday
• Dryer and warmer pattern will settle in beginning Wednesday

Slight Cooldown, but Heat Returns

Monday and Tuesday will be noticeably cooler than the past week, due largely to the forecasted rain and abundant cloudiness associated with it. This however won’t last long, as I am expecting temperatures to rise back into the low to mid 90s beginning Wednesday.

By this upcoming weekend, we will be in a dry and hot pattern once again as a high pressure system begins to lock itself in place over much of the central United States. Enjoy the coolness and rain while it lasts, because it will likely be a while before we see a return of temperatures as cool as are forecasted today and tomorrow.

Widespread Heavy Rain

Deep gulf moisture has made its way onshore, aiding to the potential for heavy rainfall through Tuesday evening. Expect locally heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning with the strongest storms. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but I cannot rule out a waterspout or some locally gusty winds with the strongest storms Monday and Tuesday.

Storms will largely be initiated by a stalling boundary approaching from the north from storms that occurred in North Texas on Sunday. The location of this boundary will be crucial in determining who sees the highest rain totals both Monday and Tuesday.

Here is what I am expecting for the timing of these storms Monday and Tuesday:

• Monday: Scattered thunderstorms are expected 7am-7pm, highest confidence in heaviest rain is in the 3-5pm time frame
• Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms expected mainly in the morning hours, dwindling in coverage as the afternoon approaches

By Wednesday, storm chances will be very isolated, with the greatest chance for a pop-up storm in the early afternoon hours. And beyond Wednesday it will be dry for the most part, although a very isolated (less than 10% chance) shower or thundershower cannot be ruled out. It is the Gulf Coast so there is always a chance for someone to get a quick shower.

Tropical Update

The strengthening El Nino I mentioned in the last forecast update a couple days ago, is continuing to hinder any tropical development in the Gulf and Atlantic. No tropical cyclone development is expected in the next 7 days.

With regard to the storms Monday and Tuesday, should any severe weather be expected or the forecast changes, the KGTV 7 Weather Team will be standing by to give updates as needed.